Yet again, the global economy seems to be stepping back from the brink. A sovereign debt crisis in Greece was seemingly averted after an E.U. plan provided backstop funding for the country. To the relief of observers, Greece just successfully sold 5 billion euros worth of seven-year bonds.

Despite the apparent resolution of Greece’s debt crisis, the situation casts light on the potential fragility of the euro. While the U.S. dollar is only put at risk by the United States, the euro can be put in peril by any one of the 16 different European countries that use the currency. It creates an environment of mutually assured economic destruction. If any one country is in trouble, it is in the best interest of the other 15 to intervene. Yet, the continental currency is still very much in its infancy and such a theory has just started to be tested.

While mutually assured destruction could give the euro stability, smaller countries looking to grow quickly could take advantage of the de-facto guarantee and over borrow. The moral hazard is high and at stake is the economy of 315 million Europeans.

As reserve bankers around the world reconsider maintaining reserves in U.S. dollars, the events in Europe have likely solidified the dollar’s standing until the euro has a longer track record. While the U.S. debt is large, the government’s credit record is sterling. The United States has not missed a bond payment since the Civil War.

“Over the last few years we’ve seen so many cards thrown into the air. We are at last seeing some of them land, forming an image of what the future looks like,” says Mark Angott, president of Angott Search Group.

The hypothetical futures for the United States floated over the last two years have included a second great depression, massive inflation, 15 percent unemployment, a nationalized banking system, the decline of the U.S. dollar, socialized medicine, and the end of American style consumerism. 

“While the playing field has changed, what we are seeing seems to be markedly less dramatic than what was predicted by some as little as six months ago,” notes Angott.

The personal savings rate, a statistic that is distinctively low in the United States compared to other developed countries, rose to as high as 5 percent in early 2009 causing fear that consumer spending, by far the largest slice of the American economy, would be permanently reduced. Since then, savings has fallen to just 3.1 percent in February. The long-term effect of Americans not saving money remains a concern. However, in the current climate this is good news. 

Revisions to 2009’s Q4 GDP show that the economy grew at an annualized rate of 5.2 percent during the quarter. However, this was thought of as an anomaly because of the impact of inventory reductions and restocking. Projections from economists for growth in the coming years is in the 2 to 3 percent range, still short of recent historical averages, but better than estimates we heard six months ago of as low as 1 percent.

“There is a lot of pent-up everything right now, from consumer spending, to hiring, to business investment,” continues Angott. “A few months of noticeable job growth could take the cork out of the bottle and spur employers who have resisted putting their hiring plans in gear.” 

Leading indicators of job growth—like the hiring of temporary staff—have been on the rise for nearly half a year and the growth of permanent jobs is beginning.

“Right now, a lot of employers are taking their time when hiring, exploring more candidates than normal, requiring more interviews, and the result is that when an offer is at last made, top candidates have already been hired,” says Angott. “But as we start to see broader, across-the-board headcount increases—likely before the end of the year—this trend will subside. Greater expediency will be needed for companies to secure top talent.”

While on the way down, as spending decreased, more jobs were lost, decreasing spending further. Fortunately, this cycle also works in reverse.

Executive job creation remains positive as recruiter confidence comes off recent highs and companies indicate plans to cautiously expand leadership teams in the coming six months, according to the results of ExecuNet’s Recruiter Confidence Index (RCI). Recruiter confidence has retreated from its recent highs, as ExecuNet’s February survey of 183 executive recruiters found 53 percent are “confident” or “very confident” the executive employment market will improve during the next six months. In January, the confidence index had reached an 18-month high of 64 percent. “That the Recruiter Confidence Index remains above the critical 50-percent level is good news for the economy and the executive employment market over the next six months,” said Mark Anderson, president and chief economist of ExecuNet. “This economy, however challenged, continues to create far more executive jobs than it did a year ago. As in past recovery periods, the economy and corporate hiring will cautiously test the waters before moving steadily upward.”

The full report can be seen here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm.

Today, the Labor Department estimated a total of 216,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy during the month of March, beating economists’ estimates of 185,000. The unemployment rate ticked down from 8.9 percent the previous month to 8.8 percent. Job growth continued to be broad-based, with positions being added across most major industry groups. Public sector employment, however, declined by 16,000, led by job losses at the city and county government levels.

March’s employment report showed an increased number of labor market re-entrants over recent months, especially among those with higher levels of education. While there was an increase of 255,000 jobs among those holding a Bachelor’s or higher, there was also an increase in the size of that workforce (employed and unemployed, but looking) of 328,000 people. To date, however, the pace of people re-entering the job market has not been large enough to prevent the unemployment rate from continuing to fall.

While the vast majority of jobs being added are now permanent—in contrast to 2010—employers continue to add contract positions as well. March saw staffing firms add 28,800 temporary positions during the month for a total of 2.3 million, or 2.1 percent of the total U.S. workforce.

The management, professional, and related occupation unemployment rate fell year-over-year from 4.7 to 4.3 percent in March. While still at a historically high level, its rate of decline to a more typical level is accelerating. In December, it was flat year-over-year, but by January, it was down 0.3 percent and by February, it was down 0.4 percent.

Total labor market growth seems to be stabilizing at a pace that will cause the unemployment rate to decline. In fact, the current level of private sector job growth, over 200,000 per month, is above average for most non-recession periods. Between 2004 and 2007, the U.S. private sector added, on average, just 169,000 jobs per month.

Please see Quentin’s article “Emerging Leaders” in the March/April issue of energybiz magazine!

• To view online please click onto the following link:  http://www.energybiz.com/magazine/article/208819/emerging-leaders.

Angott Search Group is pleased to announce that our company is expanding.  We are looking to add Executive Search Consultants to our team in our Automotive and Information Technology practices.  In recent years, as we are located in the Motor City, those practices had its challenges. However, due to emerging market conditions, these practices are experiencing rapid expansion. You could be a part of these incredible opportunities!

Qualifications:

ASG is interested in individuals who possess an unique skill set combining a passion for the automotive or I/T industry with a desire to help match exceptional candidates with extraordinary companies! 

• Candidates must have several years of professional experience in the Automotive / Engineering or Information Technology Industries with increasing levels of responsibility and success, preferably in a sales role.
• The qualified candidate must be an enthusiastic and tenacious cold calling and prospecting professional with excellent communication and relationship building skills. The ability to engage people in conversation, pique curiosity, persuade to take action and critically evaluate fit, skills, interest and motivation is a must.
• Successful search consultants should be able to work both independently and within a team and possess a fair amount of business acumen, intellect, and savvy.

For almost 30 years, ASG has built an uncompromised reputation of integrity and service within the local, regional, and national marketplace. 

Our recruiters enjoy: 

• Unlimited earnings potential
• A database consisting of 1000’s of industry contacts
• An open, vibrant, professionally appointed, high-energy work environment
• A management team with over 60 years of collective recruiting experience with ASG; patient, resourceful, and committed to your success

These exciting careers are ideal for the accomplished automotive, engineering or I/T professional who wants to help others succeed while enjoying unlimited earnings potential and more direct control over work/life balance.

If you or anyone you know, might be interested in these opportunities, please e-mail me at mangott@asgteam.com or call at (248) 650-4800. Also, please feel free to pass this on to others in your professional network who may have an interest in these exceptional openings.

The AESC’s 2010 Annual Report on the retained executive search industry shows senior executive recruiting at its third highest level ever due to a dramatic resurgence in demand following the precipitous decline of 2009. From a downturn in 2009 of -32.5 percent the industry grew by an average of 28.5 percent in 2010, only 13 percent below the all time industry peak of 2008. Other findings of the report include: Strong hiring activity in industrial, healthcare and financial services sectors. ; a continued rise in executive hiring in the Asia/Pacific region, increasing 31 percent in 2010; and annual growth in the number of new searches started (+24 percent). “A recovery of this magnitude is impressive given the extraordinary decline experienced by our profession in the aftermath of the October 2008 financial crisis,” said Peter Felix, president of the AESC. “Nevertheless, it is not so surprising given the strong underlying forces that were driving the worldwide shortage of executive talent in 2008, and their immediate resumption as soon as some form of economic recovery became clear.”

Angott Search Group Analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report
February 2011 Employment

The full report can be seen here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm.

This morning, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. unemployment rate fell from 9.0 to 8.9 percent in February. The private sector added 222,000 jobs, while the state and local level governments shed 30,000 positions. The gains were in line with economists’ estimates, and combined with positive revisions to the data of previous months, mark a sizable improvement in the rate of recovery to the labor market. This improvement is being strongly driven by those with four-year degrees, a segment of the population in which employment rose by 266,000 positions in February after having added 227,000 in January, a month where there were 63,000 net job gains.

The management, professional and related occupation unemployment rate fell from 4.8 to 4.4 percent year-over-year. The unemployment rate for construction and extraction related occupations – traditionally high in the winter – fell from 26.5 percent from a year ago to 22 percent this February. The sales and related occupations unemployment rate also fell from 10.2 to 9.0 percent year-over-year.

By industry, job growth was well distributed with gains in several industries said to be harbingers of wider economic growth, such as construction, 33,000, durable goods manufacturing, 30,000, transportation and warehousing, 22,000, and accommodations and food service, 15,500. Health care also continued to grow, adding 34,000 jobs during the month and nearly a quarter million jobs in the last year.

A sustained growth rate of approximately 200,000 positions per month is what the U.S. needs to make up for population gains to see a gradual, fundamental reduction in the unemployment rate. Revisions show that in three of the last five months we have very nearly approached that level and there is every reason to expect that such growth will continue in the near term. Job growth, however, is only taking place among workers with some college and mostly those with four-year degrees and higher. For workers without any higher education, the employment picture isn’t changing as fast. Among the long-term unemployed, this barrier to entry will continue to be an issue. The average length of unemployment reached 37.1 weeks in February, an increase of 7.3 weeks from a year ago.

Brought to you each month by: Angott Search Group

Sir Alan Michael Sugar is one of the wealthiest men in England and fills Donald Trump’s seat for the UK version of The Apprentice. He dropped out of school at 16. John Mackey, founder of Whole Foods Market, went to college, but dropped out six times. The relationships of Microsoft’s Bill Gates and Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg with Harvard are nearly legendary, and neither story includes a four-year degree.

At the beginning of this century, there was a widely held belief that four-year degrees were becoming unnecessary for success.  Of the five wealthiest people in the world in 2000, only one, Warren Buffett, held a college degree. “Academic” was a dirty word. “B-School thinking” wasn’t a compliment. Of the nearly 14 million people unemployed in January of this year, about 12 million didn’t have four-year degrees either.

“There are two dramatically different pictures among the unemployed and it can be difficult to reconcile them,” says Mark Angott, president of Angott Search Group. “The unemployment rate for those with a four-year degree is down to 4.2 percent, nearly half the national average. Employers who are trying to hire college-educated workers are seeing the difficulty.”

January’s unemployment figures were widely seen as a disappointment. The unemployment rate fell from 9.4 to 9 percent, yet, with only 34,000 jobs created, the rate drop was driven by the more than half a million people who stopped looking for a job during the month. For those with a four-year degree, the unemployment rate also dropped— from 4.8 to 4.2 percent—but its decline was the result of 227,000 new jobs that were created.

“Job losses during the recession didn’t spare anyone. MBA holders were taking to the streets looking for work like everyone else,” notes Angott. “Yet, as companies have begun to rehire, they are almost entirely hiring for positions that require four-year degrees or better. If employers are looking at a 9 percent unemployment rate and expecting they’ll be able to find high-quality candidates, they are going to be surprised when trying to find a CPA, a network administrator or any type of engineer.”

Over the last decade, total U.S. employment has grown by a meager 1.5 percent—cumulatively. Over the same time, U.S. employment for those with a four-year degree has grown by more than 20 percent.

“This isn’t a short-term situation. We are an advanced economy that requires an increasing number of workers with advanced skills in order to grow,” says Angott.

If  the approximately 700,000 jobs created in the last 12 months, virtually all of them required college degrees.  Most interestingly, the rate of growth of this workforce is slipping. In 2010, the total number of four-year degree holders in the U.S. workforce increased by only 364,000, nearly a quarter million fewer than were added in 2004, the previous low-water mark of the last twenty years.

“In a situation like this, the employment market becomes much more closed off. Employers avoid publicly advertising many positions, not wanting to deal with the flood of unqualified resumes. At the same time, top candidates avoid publicly posted positions, not wanting to take part in the cattle call,” says Angott. “This means that networking, creating candidate pipelines, and developing relationships with recruiters become the only surefire methods for companies to fully access the market’s available talent.”

ASG prepared an article for a leading bank association magazine this winter on Hiring Trends within the banking industry and received great feedback from key players in the market.

Managerial recruitment activity showed improvement in January with a gain of 3.8 points over December 2010, according to the November CareerCast.com/JobSerf Employment Index, which measures managerial recruitment activity online. The January 2011 Index stands at 103.7, rising 32.9 points since January 2010. Louisville led all cities month, with an 11 percent increase in managerial hiring, followed by San Diego with a six percent hiring increase. Washington, D.C. and Baltimore showed serious declines in hiring, with Baltimore dropping 16 percent and D.C. with a 12 percent decrease in hiring. Houston (-nine percent), Detroit (- nine percent), and Phoenix (-eight percent) were among the other cities that showed significant losses in January. Houston and Phoenix saw the largest drop in hiring per capita ranking, both falling four spots, followed by Minneapolis, which dropped three spots and St. Louis, which dropped two spots. “The hiring boom that is being forecast for 2011 could start to bring the economy back into gear and provide employment for many Americans, including manager-level jobs on up,” said Tony Lee, publisher, CareerCast.com. “Certainly with the Northeast, Midwest and Southwest reaching their highest levels since March 2008, it’s a promising sign, and we are hopeful that this upward trend will continue in the ensuing months.”